The college football world was expecting a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matchups underwhelmed, providing a lot of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went an ideal 4-0 versus the spread, including 3 fairly non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public do not seem to think so. A minimum of in two cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been an especially popular choice with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to overall dollars as of Monday afternoon.
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"All the cash is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text message to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns reaches the futures market too. Remember that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the greatest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most enjoy from sharp bettors. The Athletic talked with numerous bookmakers who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to press the line down to -12.5 or -12.
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John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "very respected gamer."
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Despite the fact that respected cash has been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do just that, as public wagerers are stacking on Texas.
"We would enjoy to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.
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While the Texas video game will be big for the books, it isn't the only video game in the area. We talked with several bookmakers to break down where the sports betting action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at most sportsbooks and has sneaked up somewhat to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly split at most sportsbooks. The overall dollars bet varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I would not be surprised if this line creeps up a bit more before kickoff, however I presently welcome any Boise State cash."
Ohio State got the Oregon second opportunity it wanted. Are the Buckeyes ready for revenge?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These groups fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet dog.
So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked with before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise formed his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before respected cash pushed it to the existing line of -2.5. A a little higher bulk of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the money has can be found in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the four come kickoff.
"We did take some reputable money at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable stated. "It's good two-way action at that number today. The overall has actually gone up 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the biggest move of any of the totals. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp gamblers, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and right away our Ohio gamblers believed we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has been driven up to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, though, that the book had actually seen substantial buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What triggered the line flip? Put simply, the sports betting action.
Even though Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been changed by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Coming in On Texas'
Marcy Putman edited this page 2025-01-08 06:08:22 +08:00